Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
OO 4699 · SFO → FAT
departs 10:27 PM PT · arrives 11:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 91%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 34%
Fri 11/20 30%
Sat 11/21 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.