Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1508 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 1508 · BUR → SFO

departs 6:42 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±18 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1508 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?