Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
YX 5834 · BNA → DCA
departs 12:41 PM CT · arrives 3:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 11/16 10%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 11%
Thu 11/19 11%
Fri 11/20 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.