Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2552 at 22:40, 37%.

Safest bet today DL 2552 ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1158 ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28 · 70% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2552 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 00:58	37%	11%	0.9%	70%
UA 555 United Flight history →	ATL 16:25	EWR 18:54	48%	23%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
UA 758 United	ATL 15:12	EWR 17:42	52%	22%	1.0%	no record
UA 1152 United Flight history →	ATL 19:37	EWR 22:04	52%	25%	1.1%	65%worse than usual
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	EWR 22:29	53%	25%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
F9 4602 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 01:03	55%	27%	2.2%	56%worse than usual
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:54	55%	20%	0.7%	66%worse than usual
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	55%	30%	0.8%	56%worse than usual
UA 2247 United Flight history →	ATL 18:25	EWR 20:47	58%	30%	1.3%	63%worse than usual
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	70%	41%	2.2%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON