Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Austin); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1398 at 18:26, 58%.

Nonstops today


AA 1398 American Flight history →	AUS 18:26	ORD 21:39	58%	18%	0.4%	60%worse than usual
AA 1568 American Flight history →	AUS 18:46	ORD 21:53	59%	19%	0.4%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 18:42 → DFW 19:56AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	6h 08m	100%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 18:54 → DFW 20:11AA 3402 · flown by Envoy	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346	4h 45m	24%	11%
American Details →	AUS 19:48 → DFW 21:20AA 5574 · flown by PSA	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	5h 02m	25%	10%
American Details →	AUS 20:43 → LAX 21:56AA 1291	49m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → ORD 05:09 +1AA 1009	8h 26m	13%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON