Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:36 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 6 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36 nonstops
Today: WN 1752 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–36%.
Against a calm day
23%
average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day
Every nonstop today
12-month record →Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.
| WN 1752 Southwest | SJC 06:06 | MDW 12:11 | 7% | 1% | 0.1% | no record |
| AA 2614 American Flight history → | SFO 06:04 | ORD 12:31 | 7% | 2% | 0.1% | 92% |
| UA 2091 United Flight history → | SFO 06:05 | ORD 12:41 | 8% | 1% | 0.2% | 93% |
| WN 1779 Southwest Flight history → | SFO 08:10 | MDW 14:10 | 9% | 1% | 0.1% | 83% |
| AA 3250 American Flight history → | SFO 06:58 | ORD 13:16 | 9% | 2% | 0.1% | 89% |
| UA 2451 United Flight history → | SJC 06:30 | ORD 12:54 | 10% | 2% | 0.2% | 97% |
| UA 2740 United | SJC 06:27 | ORD 12:40 | 11% | 2% | 0.1% | no record |
| WN 3448 Southwest | SFO 09:56 | MDW 16:00 | 12% | 2% | 0.1% | no record |
| AA 359 American Flight history → | SFO 08:00 | ORD 14:27 | 14% | 3% | 0.1% | 79% |
| UA 1568 United Flight history → | SFO 08:15 | ORD 14:50 | 15% | 3% | 0.1% | 85% |
| WN 3824 Southwest | SJC 23:01 | MDW 05:08 | 15% | 3% | 0.5% | no record |
| AA 2814 American | SFO 09:16 | ORD 15:39 | 17% | 3% | 0.1% | no record |
| WN 623 Southwest | SJC 22:55 | MDW 05:00 | 19% | 3% | 0.5% | no record |
| WN 3059 Southwest Flight history → | OAK 23:55 | MDW 06:00 | 19% | 3% | 0.6% | 66% |
| WN 4357 Southwest Flight history → | SJC 11:50 | MDW 17:55 | 21% | 4% | 0.1% | 65% |
| AA 2543 American Flight history → | SFO 10:17 | ORD 16:46 | 24% | 5% | 0.1% | 71% |
| AA 2817 American | SFO 17:19 | ORD 23:38 | 25% | 8% | 0.2% | no record |
| UA 1958 United Flight history → | SFO 18:49 | ORD 01:00 | 25% | 6% | 0.6% | 92%worse than usual |
| AA 2885 American | SFO 10:35 | ORD 16:43 | 26% | 5% | 0.1% | no record |
| AA 2537 American Flight history → | SFO 16:20 | ORD 23:00 | 26% | 7% | 0.1% | 69% |
| AA 2642 American | SFO 15:12 | ORD 21:39 | 26% | 9% | 0.2% | no record |
| UA 368 United Flight history → | SFO 23:30 | ORD 05:57 | 28% | 5% | 0.6% | 86%worse than usual |
| UA 2278 United Flight history → | SFO 22:38 | ORD 05:01 | 30% | 6% | 0.6% | 81%worse than usual |
| UA 1482 United Flight history → | SFO 16:21 | ORD 22:59 | 31% | 8% | 0.2% | 81%worse than usual |
| UA 2827 United | SFO 10:23 | ORD 16:42 | 31% | 4% | 0.1% | no record |
| AA 2358 American | SFO 13:45 | ORD 20:22 | 31% | 8% | 0.2% | no record |
| UA 1147 United | SFO 15:11 | ORD 21:35 | 31% | 7% | 0.2% | no record |
| AA 2554 American Flight history → | SFO 23:07 | ORD 05:20 | 33% | 5% | 0.9% | 73% |
| UA 1650 United | SJC 14:06 | ORD 20:33 | 33% | 6% | 0.2% | no record |
| UA 1887 United | SFO 16:39 | ORD 22:49 | 33% | 8% | 0.2% | no record |
| AA 2113 American Flight history → | SFO 23:02 | ORD 05:03 | 33% | 6% | 0.9% | 60% |
| WN 3782 Southwest | SFO 23:41 | MDW 05:47 | 35% | 5% | 0.6% | no record |
| AA 2550 American Flight history → | SFO 14:36 | ORD 21:27 | 35% | 9% | 0.2% | 37% |
| WN 3649 Southwest Flight history → | SFO 23:40 | MDW 05:55 | 36% | 5% | 0.6% | 41% |
| UA 2317 United Flight history → | SFO 12:00 | ORD 18:35 | 37% | 6% | 0.1% | 50% |
| UA 1922 United | SFO 13:59 | ORD 20:20 | 38% | 7% | 0.2% | no record |
Alternatives with one stop that day
All connections →About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON