Today: UA 2861 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet today UA 2861 SFO 06:42 → IAD 14:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:42	IAD 14:47	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	14%	3%	0.2%	90%
UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	16%	3%	0.2%	84%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:07	IAD 16:09	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1646 United	SFO 23:07	BWI 07:38	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	19%	5%	0.9%	80%
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:42	IAD 06:04	19%	5%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	20%	4%	0.2%	78%
UA 2111 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	IAD 07:49	20%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:54	IAD 21:23	21%	4%	0.2%	78%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	21%	5%	0.2%	87%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	21%	3%	0.5%	78%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	SFO 22:40	BWI 07:10	22%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	22%	5%	0.9%	74%
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	24%	4%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:55	24%	6%	0.9%	67%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	26%	4%	0.2%	76%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	30%	7%	0.2%	71%
WN 1342 Southwest	SFO 21:37	BWI 05:43	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	33%	7%	0.7%	74%
WN 3801 Southwest	SJC 21:41	BWI 05:46	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	BWI 05:25	35%	5%	0.7%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:35 → LAS 08:05WN 2830	50m Las Vegas	LAS 08:55 → BWI 16:35WN 235	7h 00m	91%	73%
Southwest Details →	OAK 06:35 → LAS 08:10WN 4348	1h 16m Las Vegas	LAS 09:26 → DCA 16:56WN 2307	7h 21m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	86%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON