Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 pm at Birmingham); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 48% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5064 at 17:47, 60%.

Nonstops today


AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 17:47	PHL 21:07	60%	30%	5.0%	63%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BHM 17:26 → MIA 20:28AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Miami	MIA 22:04 → PHL 00:55 +1AA 2188	6h 29m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 32m	95%	24%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 16:49 → DFW 19:00AA 5329 · flown by PSA	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	6h 46m	42%	12%
Delta Details →	BHM 19:48 → ATL 21:53DL 2900	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	4h 11m	40%	10%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	53m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:29DL 1174	4h 02m	31%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON