Today: WN 188 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–47%.

Safest bet today WN 188 BNA 09:21 → DAL 11:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3857 BNA 20:06 → DAL 22:09 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 188 Southwest	BNA 09:21	DAL 11:22	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:00	DAL 10:55	13%	2%	0.5%	69%
WN 533 Southwest	BNA 12:36	DAL 14:37	24%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 5078 Southwest	BNA 11:05	DAL 12:55	27%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1136 Southwest	BNA 14:35	DAL 16:30	35%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 444 Southwest	BNA 14:52	DAL 16:53	35%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 421 Southwest	BNA 21:36	DAL 23:39	41%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3230 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:35	DAL 23:30	44%	9%	0.7%	32%
WN 3562 Southwest	BNA 17:35	DAL 19:30	46%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1691 Southwest	BNA 17:53	DAL 19:54	46%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3857 Southwest	BNA 20:06	DAL 22:09	47%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON