Today: AA 4374 at 15:05 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–55%.

Safest bet today AA 4374 BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest WN 1389 BNA 19:06 → DCA 21:54 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:05	DCA 18:02	28%	6%	0.3%	73%
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 17:03	DCA 20:00	29%	7%	0.3%	no record
AA 4495 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 16:51	DCA 19:55	31%	7%	0.4%	68%
AA 3991 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 15:30	DCA 18:26	31%	6%	0.6%	70%
DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:00	DCA 19:57	31%	7%	0.3%	62%
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 16:45	DCA 19:53	33%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 3821 Southwest	BNA 15:11	DCA 17:59	40%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 1163 American Flight history →	BNA 19:38	DCA 22:29	46%	10%	0.6%	66%worse than usual
WN 497 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:55	DCA 23:50	48%	9%	0.3%	43%
WN 2324 Southwest	BNA 16:10	DCA 18:55	49%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 1389 Southwest	BNA 19:06	DCA 21:54	55%	10%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON