tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:37 pm at Nashville); 6 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 40–48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2339 United Flight history → BNA 15:08 IAH 17:19 40% 6% 0.2% 72%worse than usual
UA 2490 United Flight history → BNA 18:42 IAH 20:54 48% 7% 0.2% 76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:01 → ORD 17:04UA 3440 · flown by Republic 2h 58m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 7h 58m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → BNA 12:49 → ORD 14:50UA 1616 2h 55m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 8h 01m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 3h 39m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 8h 21m 96% 61%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 2h 40m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 7h 35m 83% 61%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 49m 80% 58%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 40m Charlotte CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840 5h 53m 100% 54%
UnitedDetails → BNA 13:35 → IAD 16:28UA 2125 1h 31m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 6h 50m 87% 53%
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 3h 06m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 37m 94% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 46m Denver DEN 17:15 → IAH 20:40UA 1587 6h 11m 34% 18%
AmericanDetails → BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 4h 23m 26% 8%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:35 → EWR 19:00UA 2848 46m Newark EWR 19:46 → IAH 22:38UA 2127 7h 03m 11% 6%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON