Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:30 pm at Nashville); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 746 at 22:31, 48%.

Nonstops today


WN 746 Southwest	BNA 22:31	TUL 00:19	48%	10%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:55AA 1570	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	81%	67%
United Details →	BNA 17:24 → DEN 19:16UA 2201	1h 39m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	89%	58%
American Details →	BNA 16:36 → DFW 18:53AA 1522	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	7h 11m	98%	43%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 48m	95%	27%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 18:42 → IAH 20:54UA 2490	48m Houston	IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa	4h 33m	29%	24%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:40 → DEN 18:40WN 504	56m Denver	DEN 19:36 → TUL 22:19WN 2758	5h 39m	29%	14%
American Details →	BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	4h 13m	26%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON