Today: WN 1371 at 15:26 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet today WN 1371 BUR 15:26 → OAK 16:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2709 BUR 20:15 → OAK 21:30 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1371 Southwest	BUR 15:26	OAK 16:49	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 805 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:45	OAK 16:00	26%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 889 Southwest	BUR 19:26	OAK 20:49	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1129 Southwest	BUR 18:01	OAK 19:24	37%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1145 Southwest	BUR 20:51	OAK 22:14	38%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 807 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:30	OAK 20:45	38%	7%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
WN 806 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:45	OAK 19:00	39%	7%	0.6%	68%
WN 2709 Southwest	BUR 20:15	OAK 21:30	45%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON