Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2799 at 17:00, 35%.

Safest bet today DL 2799 BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest F9 1079 BWI 19:07 → ATL 21:25 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:00	ATL 19:08	35%	11%	0.5%	78%worse than usual
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:34	38%	9%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
WN 2832 Southwest	BWI 14:42	ATL 16:45	45%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3823 Southwest	BWI 20:10	ATL 22:05	48%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 9005 Southwest	BWI 14:34	ATL 16:00	49%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 459 Southwest	BWI 17:55	ATL 19:55	49%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 4537 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:37	ATL 23:49	49%	21%	1.3%	61%worse than usual
WN 2052 Southwest	BWI 19:51	ATL 21:54	55%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 2904 Southwest	BWI 18:21	ATL 20:24	60%	10%	0.3%	no record
F9 1079 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 19:07	ATL 21:25	63%	23%	1.1%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON