Today: WN 947 at 15:30 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet today WN 947 BWI 15:30 → FLL 18:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest F9 4411 BWI 13:05 → FLL 15:47 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 947 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:30	FLL 18:15	26%	9%	0.2%	50%
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 14:51	FLL 17:41	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2290 Southwest	BWI 19:53	FLL 22:44	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4783 Southwest	BWI 18:00	FLL 20:45	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	30%	15%	0.7%	57%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:35	FLL 23:20	31%	9%	0.3%	50%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	37%	17%	1.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON