Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:27 pm at Baltimore); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48% (calm day: 38%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 17:35, 47% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 17:35 → LAS 19:40WN 976	3h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → PHX 00:15 +1WN 3126	9h 40m	95%	47%
Southwest Details →	BWI 17:40 → CMH 19:05WN 921	1h 41m Columbus	CMH 20:46 → PHX 21:57WN 2252	7h 17m	86%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 20:13 → ORD 21:44AA 4717 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786	7h 01m	65%	39%
Southwest Details →	BWI 19:45 → LAS 21:55WN 977	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → PHX 00:15 +1WN 3126	7h 30m	57%	28%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:20 → ATL 20:34DL 1267	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842	7h 19m	52%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON