tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:43 am at Baltimore); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 17:35, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4982 Southwest BWI 12:55 SJC 15:30 31% 4% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BWI 16:19 → PDX 18:56AS 1369 2h 34m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 10h 02m 94% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:10 → LAS 18:15WN 975 3h 56m Las Vegas LAS 22:11 → SJC 23:50WN 2437 10h 40m 100% 68%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 17:35 → LAS 19:40WN 976 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → SJC 23:55WN 1511 9h 20m 96% 64%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 14:40 → BNA 15:35WN 3245 2h 20m Nashville BNA 17:55 → SJC 20:48WN 725 9h 08m 100% 61%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 13:05 → DEN 14:55WN 937 1h 35m Denver DEN 16:30 → SJC 18:10WN 1386 8h 05m 95% 59%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 00m 98% 59%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:40 → LAX 18:05WN 193 2h 50m Los Angeles LAX 20:55 → SJC 22:10WN 2435 9h 30m 98% 54%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 49m 86% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 11m 59% 39%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 54m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 7h 44m 60% 36%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 14:40 → PHX 16:30WN 1050 50m Phoenix PHX 17:20 → SJC 19:22WN 4658 7h 42m 61% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON