tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:35 am at Bozeman)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1702 at 16:17, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1702 United Flight history → BZN 16:17 SFO 17:50 35% 9% 0.2% 56%
AS 2063 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 17:51 SFO 19:25 82% 43% 5.8% 18%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 5h 22m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 4h 59m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:53DL 2946 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 8h 21m 93% 64%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:09UA 741 3h 22m Los Angeles LAX 22:31 → SFO 23:58UA 1047 7h 32m 98% 59%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:16 → PHX 14:48AA 6416 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 16:58 → SFO 19:08AA 2421 6h 52m 92% 57%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 14m 87% 56%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon 56m Portland PDX 17:46 → SFO 19:39AS 1393 4h 35m 82% 55%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:29 → DEN 18:23UA 1322 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 7h 27m 96% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 52m Chicago ORD 18:09 → SFO 20:56AA 1620 8h 45m 48% 32%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 12:10 → SAN 13:50WN 1139 51m San Diego SAN 14:41 → SFO 16:18WN 1193 5h 08m 49% 25%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:54 → SEA 16:58DL 4174 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 22% 10%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON