Today: WN 1381 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–44%.

Safest bet today WN 1381 MDW 08:51 → HOU 11:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3144 ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1381 Southwest	MDW 08:51	HOU 11:36	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2638 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	IAH 13:23	14%	3%	0.2%	87%
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	14%	3%	0.3%	80%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	IAH 12:46	18%	6%	0.3%	67%
AA 4426 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:36	IAH 16:32	19%	4%	0.3%	83%
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:29	IAH 13:15	20%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:39	20%	4%	0.2%	89%
WN 1674 Southwest	MDW 10:40	HOU 13:20	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2451 United Flight history →	ORD 14:15	IAH 17:20	23%	4%	0.2%	78%
WN 833 Southwest	MDW 14:28	HOU 17:14	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:41	IAH 13:31	24%	6%	0.3%	86%worse than usual
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	IAH 17:28	25%	4%	0.2%	76%
WN 2714 Southwest	MDW 12:35	HOU 15:10	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:23	IAH 16:14	26%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	29%	5%	0.4%	74%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	30%	7%	0.9%	76%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 14:56	IAH 17:48	31%	7%	0.9%	78%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	IAH 20:50	32%	5%	0.4%	77%
AA 1913 American Flight history →	ORD 15:07	IAH 18:01	32%	7%	0.3%	52%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	IAH 21:25	33%	7%	0.4%	62%
WN 2785 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:10	HOU 20:50	35%	7%	0.7%	56%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	35%	9%	0.9%	56%
UA 1921 United	ORD 17:48	IAH 20:37	36%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:34	IAH 21:21	37%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:31	IAH 18:19	38%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:11	IAH 20:03	39%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 2891 Southwest	MDW 18:46	HOU 21:32	39%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4058 Southwest	MDW 21:21	HOU 00:06	41%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 954 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	HOU 00:15	42%	7%	0.8%	42%
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	44%	12%	1.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON