Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:17 pm at Cleveland); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 36–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


F9 3452 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 16:05	FLL 18:57	36%	17%	1.0%	71%
F9 3736 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 20:16	FLL 23:17	38%	18%	1.1%	81%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLE 15:54 → CLT 17:40AA 1681	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 20:40 → FLL 22:49AA 2945	6h 55m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	CLE 15:50 → DTW 17:01DL 3581 · flown by SkyWest	3h 43m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296	7h 52m	93%	64%
United Details →	CLE 16:14 → ORD 16:59UA 3575 · flown by Republic	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463	6h 01m	83%	59%
Southwest Details →	CLE 17:45 → BWI 19:05WN 4295	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 20:35 → FLL 23:20WN 3072	5h 35m	83%	56%
Delta Details →	CLE 16:28 → ATL 18:22DL 2545	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → FLL 23:24DL 1107	6h 56m	97%	55%
Delta Details →	CLE 18:37 → ATL 20:43DL 880	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 02m	91%	52%
Delta Details →	CLE 16:15 → LGA 18:00DL 5242 · flown by Endeavor	1h 29m New York	LGA 19:29 → FLL 22:52DL 2308	6h 37m	89%	48%
United Details →	CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31UA 1892	3h 13m Newark	EWR 20:44 → FLL 23:59UA 1897	8h 09m	79%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLE 17:42 → EWR 19:30UA 3633 · flown by Republic	1h 14m Newark	EWR 20:44 → FLL 23:59UA 1897	6h 17m	72%	38%
Southwest Details →	CLE 17:45 → BWI 19:05WN 4295	47m Baltimore	BWI 19:52 → FLL 22:44WN 2290	4h 59m	49%	33%
Delta Details →	CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	49m New York	JFK 19:58 → FLL 23:28DL 1414	6h 13m	63%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON