tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:53 pm at Charlotte); 8 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 36%). Best bet: United via Bush, leaving 17:00, 46% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2055 American Flight history → CLT 19:14 LAX 21:20 43% 9% 0.3% 67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 8h 32m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38UA 2215 9h 38m 99% 64%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 18:00 → MDW 19:00WN 914 3h 30m Chicago MDW 22:30 → LAX 00:51 +1WN 246 9h 51m 95% 61%
UnitedDetails → CLT 19:44 → IAD 21:20UA 3998 · flown by Mesa 1h 00m Dulles IAD 22:20 → LAX 00:57 +1UA 1385 8h 13m 82% 60%
DeltaDetails → CLT 17:02 → DTW 18:52DL 1430 2h 07m Detroit DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46DL 694 8h 44m 90% 59%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 2h 39m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 9h 26m 89% 56%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:00 → MIA 20:21AA 488 1h 59m Miami MIA 22:20 → LAX 00:48 +1AA 669 9h 48m 88% 55%
UnitedDetails → CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 2060 8h 29m 80% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → CLT 19:52 → DEN 21:35F9 1361 1h 04m Denver DEN 22:39 → LAX 00:11 +1F9 4345 7h 19m 49% 30%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 58m Chicago ORD 20:49 → LAX 23:13AA 613 7h 47m 48% 26%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:23 → PHX 19:51AA 1073 47m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 6h 44m 49% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON