Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 72%, against 48% on a calm day. Safest: WN 804 at 18:00, 68%.

Safest bet today WN 804 DAL 18:00 → AUS 19:10 · 68% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3106 DAL 16:00 → AUS 17:10 · 75% chance 15+ min late

Weather 72% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 804 Southwest	DAL 18:00	AUS 19:10	68%	32%	0.6%	no record
WN 4887 Southwest	DAL 22:25	AUS 23:35	69%	19%	0.6%	no record
WN 1515 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	AUS 22:50	74%	23%	0.6%	46%worse than usual
WN 1039 Southwest	DAL 19:30	AUS 20:35	75%	29%	0.6%	no record
WN 3106 Southwest	DAL 16:00	AUS 17:10	75%	38%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON