Today: WN 1385 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–55%.

Safest bet today WN 1385 DAL 11:25 → LGA 15:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1311 DAL 16:05 → LGA 20:30 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1385 Southwest	DAL 11:25	LGA 15:49	35%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 4478 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:25	LGA 16:50	44%	16%	1.4%	32%
WN 1312 Southwest	DAL 18:05	LGA 22:30	45%	17%	1.3%	no record
WN 3526 Southwest	DAL 19:05	LGA 23:28	48%	19%	1.2%	no record
WN 667 Southwest	DAL 15:55	LGA 20:20	54%	19%	1.3%	no record
WN 1311 Southwest	DAL 16:05	LGA 20:30	55%	22%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON