Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1424 at 22:25, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 1424 DAL 22:25 → MSY 00:03 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5070 DAL 16:10 → MSY 17:40 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1424 Southwest	DAL 22:25	MSY 00:03	46%	13%	1.3%	no record
WN 3232 Southwest	DAL 19:30	MSY 21:08	49%	12%	1.1%	no record
WN 4831 Southwest	DAL 20:35	MSY 22:13	49%	14%	1.2%	no record
WN 4695 Southwest	DAL 13:22	MSY 15:00	51%	11%	1.3%	no record
WN 1065 Southwest	DAL 19:30	MSY 21:00	54%	15%	1.2%	no record
WN 1146 Southwest	DAL 17:10	MSY 18:40	54%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 3790 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:50	MSY 14:20	55%	11%	1.3%	57%worse than usual
WN 1422 Southwest	DAL 16:16	MSY 17:54	56%	11%	1.2%	no record
WN 5070 Southwest	DAL 16:10	MSY 17:40	58%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON