Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 843 at 21:35, with a 47% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 843 Southwest	DAL 21:35	OAK 23:15	47%	13%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → OAK 00:08 +1WN 2015	10h 18m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:05 → BUR 16:15WN 4076	3h 10m Burbank	BUR 19:25 → OAK 20:49WN 889	7h 44m	90%	64%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	2h 25m Denver	DEN 21:50 → OAK 23:30WN 1650	7h 35m	88%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → OAK 00:08 +1WN 2015	9h 01m	67%	45%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 37m Denver	DEN 21:02 → OAK 22:42WN 2943	6h 47m	65%	29%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:21 → HOU 15:42WN 31	58m Houston	HOU 16:40 → OAK 18:35WN 1557	6h 14m	55%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON