Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 15:50, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 21:50 → PDX 00:15 +1WN 2852	10h 25m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 22:30 → PDX 00:57 +1WN 2950	9h 50m	91%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 30m Denver	DEN 20:55 → PDX 22:39WN 184	6h 44m	62%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON