Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 45% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2282 at 20:36, 51%.

Safest bet today WN 2282 DAL 20:36 → TPA 00:16 · 51% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1417 DAL 20:20 → TPA 23:50 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2282 Southwest	DAL 20:36	TPA 00:16	51%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 2729 Southwest	DAL 17:41	TPA 21:22	58%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 1291 Southwest	DAL 17:10	TPA 20:45	58%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:20	TPA 23:50	58%	23%	0.7%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON