Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1412 at 12:27, 31%.

Safest bet today WN 1412 DAL 12:27 → MDW 14:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1290 DFW 16:36 → ORD 18:54 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1412 Southwest	DAL 12:27	MDW 14:46	31%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 161 Southwest	DAL 21:55	MDW 00:14	33%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	35%	8%	0.2%	74%
WN 849 Southwest	DAL 19:50	MDW 22:09	36%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1358 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:10	MDW 15:25	37%	7%	0.7%	60%
WN 1151 Southwest	DAL 21:25	MDW 23:40	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	38%	12%	0.4%	63%
WN 961 Southwest	DAL 13:37	MDW 15:56	38%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3531 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	ORD 22:15	39%	11%	0.7%	64%
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:07	MDW 19:25	39%	7%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
WN 4258 Southwest	DAL 19:35	MDW 21:50	42%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:25	ORD 13:52	42%	9%	0.4%	72%worse than usual
WN 1359 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:50	MDW 18:05	44%	9%	0.9%	34%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:32	ORD 23:50	45%	13%	0.4%	56%
AA 1193 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	ORD 00:50	45%	12%	0.4%	55%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	47%	11%	0.3%	66%worse than usual
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	47%	12%	0.4%	68%worse than usual
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	48%	11%	0.2%	63%worse than usual
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:15	ORD 21:38	49%	11%	0.6%	66%worse than usual
F9 1342 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:25	ORD 16:08	51%	17%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
F9 3244 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:16	ORD 00:47	51%	14%	0.9%	64%worse than usual
AA 1424 American Flight history →	DFW 18:38	ORD 21:22	54%	17%	0.4%	39%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	55%	12%	0.2%	60%worse than usual
UA 2299 United Flight history →	DFW 16:13	ORD 18:55	55%	13%	0.2%	57%worse than usual
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:45	ORD 20:34	55%	14%	0.2%	no record
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:20	ORD 20:47	55%	16%	0.3%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DFW 17:34	ORD 20:29	56%	15%	0.3%	41%
AA 2474 American Flight history →	DFW 16:50	ORD 19:44	58%	15%	0.4%	55%worse than usual
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:43	ORD 20:27	58%	19%	0.7%	63%worse than usual
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:53	ORD 20:15	60%	14%	0.2%	no record
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:49	ORD 18:26	62%	15%	0.4%	no record
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:36	ORD 18:54	68%	15%	0.3%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON