Today: WN 4576 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–60%.

Safest bet today WN 4576 DAL 20:00 → LGB 21:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2147 DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 40 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4576 Southwest	DAL 20:00	LGB 21:10	35%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 2926 Southwest	DAL 14:06	LGB 15:22	37%	9%	0.3%	no record
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	38%	11%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:01	LAX 15:26	38%	19%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
WN 1373 Southwest	DAL 19:43	LAX 21:00	39%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 748 Southwest	DAL 14:17	LAX 15:27	40%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 1889 Southwest	DAL 19:25	LAX 20:35	42%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	42%	8%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAX 21:50	44%	10%	0.3%	86%worse than usual
WN 206 Southwest	DAL 22:06	LAX 23:23	45%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:05	BUR 16:15	46%	8%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
WN 1228 Southwest	DAL 13:29	SNA 14:36	46%	9%	0.4%	no record
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:09	LAX 23:33	50%	20%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
AA 3287 American Flight history →	DFW 21:36	LAX 22:49	51%	14%	0.6%	43%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	51%	11%	0.8%	68%worse than usual
AA 2038 American	DFW 22:43	LAX 00:04	55%	15%	0.5%	no record
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	55%	19%	0.6%	63%worse than usual
AA 2931 American	DFW 20:26	LAX 21:43	56%	15%	0.4%	no record
AA 2732 American Flight history →	DFW 15:30	LAX 16:39	56%	19%	0.5%	45%
AA 2688 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	SNA 15:42	56%	17%	0.7%	61%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:45	SNA 16:02	56%	16%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 711 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ONT 22:32	56%	15%	0.7%	53%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:35	LAX 16:52	56%	19%	0.6%	52%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	LAX 19:45	56%	18%	0.6%	56%worse than usual
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:26	ONT 18:50	58%	22%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 966 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	LAX 17:48	58%	16%	0.5%	67%worse than usual
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:37	LAX 19:55	58%	19%	0.5%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	LAX 17:54	58%	18%	0.6%	61%worse than usual
AA 1972 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	LAX 18:44	58%	19%	0.6%	53%worse than usual
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:38	LAX 18:57	58%	18%	0.6%	no record
AA 2236 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	ONT 19:59	58%	18%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
AA 2668 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:37	58%	12%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:32	SNA 17:50	58%	11%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 1695 American	DFW 22:39	ONT 23:55	58%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 1534 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	ONT 23:59	58%	14%	0.7%	39%
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:49	ONT 19:06	60%	19%	0.7%	65%worse than usual
AA 2147 American	DFW 19:59	ONT 21:12	60%	17%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON