Today: WN 2378 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–61%.

Safest bet today WN 2378 DAL 09:11 → LAX 10:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2597 DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2378 Southwest	DAL 09:11	LAX 10:19	20%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 748 Southwest	DAL 14:17	LAX 15:27	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4394 Southwest	DAL 11:35	LAX 12:45	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 2515 Southwest	DAL 12:01	ONT 13:10	26%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 1330 Southwest	DAL 10:56	BUR 12:18	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4017 Southwest	DAL 13:00	ONT 14:00	28%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	30%	5%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	30%	6%	1.3%	74%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAX 21:50	30%	8%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	31%	8%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
WN 2926 Southwest	DAL 14:06	LGB 15:22	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 500 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	LAX 10:52	31%	6%	0.4%	75%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:27	LAX 10:41	31%	7%	0.4%	69%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:01	LAX 15:26	31%	12%	0.6%	76%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:59	LAX 12:18	33%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:35	ONT 11:52	33%	10%	0.7%	74%
AA 2827 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LAX 11:57	35%	9%	0.4%	73%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	DFW 11:41	LAX 12:53	35%	11%	0.4%	76%worse than usual
WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:05	BUR 16:15	35%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 2672 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	SNA 10:48	35%	7%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 1228 Southwest	DAL 13:29	SNA 14:36	36%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:47	LAX 13:04	36%	10%	0.4%	75%worse than usual
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:36	SNA 10:50	36%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4195 Southwest	DAL 12:55	SNA 14:00	37%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4576 Southwest	DAL 20:00	LGB 21:10	37%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1889 Southwest	DAL 19:25	LAX 20:35	38%	11%	0.2%	no record
AA 2732 American Flight history →	DFW 15:30	LAX 16:39	38%	17%	0.4%	45%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:36	LAX 16:52	38%	16%	0.4%	52%
AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	BUR 11:34	39%	14%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:38	LAX 17:54	39%	15%	0.5%	61%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:15	ONT 13:32	39%	11%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 966 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	LAX 17:48	39%	14%	0.5%	67%
AA 2684 American Flight history →	DFW 12:23	SNA 13:31	39%	9%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
AA 3334 American Flight history →	DFW 13:11	LAX 14:20	40%	13%	0.3%	75%worse than usual
AA 2239 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:22	40%	11%	0.6%	58%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:35	SNA 13:52	42%	9%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 2038 American	DFW 22:44	LAX 00:04	42%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1617 American Flight history →	DFW 10:56	BUR 12:05	42%	14%	0.5%	71%worse than usual
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:03	LAX 14:18	43%	14%	0.3%	no record
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:47	SNA 13:03	43%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:09	LAX 23:33	44%	11%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
AA 1972 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	LAX 18:44	44%	16%	0.5%	53%
AA 3287 American Flight history →	DFW 21:36	LAX 22:49	46%	13%	1.2%	43%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	LAX 19:45	46%	17%	0.4%	56%
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:39	LAX 18:57	46%	16%	0.5%	no record
AA 2668 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:37	46%	10%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	SNA 17:50	46%	9%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 2688 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	SNA 15:42	46%	11%	0.6%	61%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	SNA 16:02	47%	10%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	47%	9%	0.7%	68%worse than usual
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:38	LAX 19:55	48%	18%	0.4%	no record
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:26	ONT 18:50	49%	16%	1.4%	79%worse than usual
AA 1695 American	DFW 22:40	ONT 23:55	50%	15%	1.3%	no record
AA 711 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ONT 22:32	50%	16%	1.3%	53%
WN 206 Southwest	DAL 22:06	LAX 23:23	51%	16%	0.6%	no record
AA 2931 American	DFW 20:27	LAX 21:43	51%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 1534 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	ONT 23:59	51%	15%	1.3%	39%
AA 2147 American	DFW 20:00	ONT 21:12	54%	14%	1.2%	no record
WN 1373 Southwest	DAL 19:43	LAX 21:00	56%	16%	0.7%	no record
AA 2236 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	ONT 19:59	56%	16%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	ONT 19:06	56%	19%	1.0%	65%worse than usual
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	61%	16%	1.3%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON