Today: WN 4202 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–64%.

Safest bet today WN 4202 DAL 07:41 → MCO 11:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2886 DFW 20:14 → MCO 00:08 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4202 Southwest	DAL 07:41	MCO 11:20	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 5068 Southwest	DAL 09:25	MCO 13:05	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1482 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:28	MCO 12:28	25%	9%	1.2%	81%
WN 1509 Southwest	DAL 10:57	MCO 14:38	32%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2750 American Flight history →	DFW 09:25	MCO 13:09	35%	10%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 1407 Southwest	DAL 11:57	MCO 15:36	35%	10%	0.9%	no record
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:14	MCO 13:03	35%	12%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 2136 American Flight history →	DFW 08:39	MCO 11:50	37%	7%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 1312 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	MCO 14:37	39%	14%	1.0%	59%
AA 2151 American	DFW 10:58	MCO 14:45	39%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 1615 American	DFW 12:13	MCO 15:57	42%	18%	1.2%	no record
WN 598 Southwest	DAL 13:02	MCO 16:41	43%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 992 Southwest	DAL 13:50	MCO 17:35	43%	15%	1.1%	no record
AA 2097 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	MCO 15:44	44%	17%	1.2%	41%
F9 1952 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:30	MCO 17:23	45%	27%	1.9%	73%worse than usual
WN 1521 Southwest	DAL 22:15	MCO 01:55	48%	18%	1.3%	no record
WN 4596 Southwest	DAL 21:01	MCO 00:39	48%	16%	1.3%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	DAL 17:25	MCO 21:10	48%	18%	1.4%	no record
WN 3736 Southwest	DAL 20:25	MCO 00:10	50%	17%	1.3%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	DAL 19:58	MCO 23:38	50%	17%	1.6%	no record
AA 1288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:06	MCO 16:57	50%	20%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
WN 3282 Southwest	DAL 16:30	MCO 20:20	50%	19%	1.4%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	DAL 17:51	MCO 21:32	50%	19%	1.4%	no record
AA 1692 American	DFW 13:46	MCO 17:35	53%	23%	1.3%	no record
AA 2117 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	MCO 18:30	55%	25%	1.3%	56%worse than usual
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	56%	23%	2.0%	44%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	58%	24%	2.1%	51%
F9 4192 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:50	MCO 01:42	58%	22%	3.6%	79%worse than usual
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MCO 00:21	60%	15%	2.7%	52%worse than usual
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:17	60%	24%	2.0%	46%
F9 2886 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:14	MCO 00:08	64%	25%	3.6%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON