Today: YX 4367 at 21:57 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–39%.

Safest bet today YX 4367 DCA 21:57 → BNA 23:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1428 DCA 19:55 → BNA 20:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4367 Republic	DCA 21:57	BNA 23:04	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	23%	4%	0.4%	79%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 17:46	BNA 18:58	31%	13%	0.7%	61%
WN 1770 Southwest	DCA 17:35	BNA 18:40	36%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 5513 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	BNA 23:05	36%	13%	1.3%	41%
WN 4523 Southwest	DCA 17:36	BNA 18:31	39%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 1428 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:55	BNA 20:55	39%	10%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON