Today: YX 4739 at 14:46 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet today YX 4739 DCA 14:46 → CVG 16:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5147 DCA 18:46 → CVG 20:37 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4739 Republic	DCA 14:46	CVG 16:34	13%	4%	0.4%	no record
OH 5647 PSA	DCA 14:54	CVG 16:38	26%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 5673 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:02	CVG 20:57	33%	14%	1.0%	60%
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:46	CVG 20:37	36%	11%	1.0%	60%
DL 5221 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 14:45	CVG 16:22	31%	13%	2.3%	69%
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 19:30	CVG 21:11	35%	19%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON