Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:19 pm at Washington); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5131 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:34	DAY 21:23	25%	10%	0.7%	82%
AA 5162 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:32	DAY 17:10	30%	12%	0.8%	57%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 16:10 → ORD 17:32AA 1637	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → DAY 22:51AA 4972 · flown by SkyWest	6h 41m	99%	71%
American Details →	DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA	6h 46m	93%	67%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet	6h 44m	93%	59%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167	5h 21m	78%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	52m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA	4h 19m	58%	42%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	48m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet	4h 39m	49%	31%
American Details →	DCA 17:24 → PHL 18:38AA 5406 · flown by PSA	59m Philadelphia	PHL 19:37 → DAY 21:25AA 5064 · flown by PSA	4h 01m	48%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON