tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:23 pm at Washington); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 40–44% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1645 Southwest DCA 20:26 HOU 22:49 40% 10% 0.6% no record
WN 4366 Southwest DCA 18:20 HOU 20:40 44% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:10 → DAL 19:20WN 1403 3h 26m Dallas DAL 22:46 → HOU 00:06 +1WN 65 7h 56m 98% 60%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 15:10 → MDW 16:15WN 4479 2h 31m Chicago MDW 18:46 → HOU 21:32WN 2891 7h 22m 94% 57%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 19:55 → BNA 20:55WN 1428 1h 44m Nashville BNA 22:39 → HOU 00:55 +1WN 570 6h 00m 84% 49%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → TPA 18:55WN 1464 1h 40m Tampa TPA 20:35 → HOU 21:50WN 4025 6h 25m 88% 40%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 6h 51m 91% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:10 → DAL 19:20WN 1403 1h 09m Dallas DAL 20:29 → HOU 21:49WN 55 5h 39m 67% 38%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 18:55 → MSY 20:35WN 1453 1h 36m New Orleans MSY 22:11 → HOU 23:32WN 3116 5h 37m 74% 36%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 5h 40m 37% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON