Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2446 at 09:49, 36%.

Safest bet today UA 2446 DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 1652 DEN 13:15 → LGA 18:53 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	36%	13%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:45	LGA 23:38	39%	15%	0.5%	70%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	42%	16%	0.6%	60%
WN 2890 Southwest	DEN 10:05	LGA 15:43	42%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	LGA 17:17	45%	14%	0.4%	72%worse than usual
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	45%	14%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
WN 4441 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:20	LGA 17:00	48%	14%	0.6%	51%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	49%	18%	0.5%	71%worse than usual
WN 4480 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:15	LGA 23:00	51%	17%	0.6%	25%
WN 472 Southwest	DEN 17:05	LGA 22:42	52%	17%	0.6%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	53%	15%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
WN 1275 Southwest	DEN 14:45	LGA 20:25	58%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 1652 Southwest	DEN 13:15	LGA 18:53	58%	18%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 14:05 → MCI 16:50WN 1587	50m Kansas City	MCI 17:40 → LGA 21:25WN 2564	5h 20m	81%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON