Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:17 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 358 at 12:25 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–47%.

Safest bet today UA 358 DFW 12:25 → IAD 16:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1904 DFW 14:36 → IAD 18:37 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	35%	10%	0.4%	86%worse than usual
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	38%	10%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 14:51	IAD 19:02	46%	15%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
AA 1132 American Flight history →	DFW 18:44	IAD 22:52	47%	18%	0.4%	47%
AA 2254 American	DFW 18:45	IAD 22:39	47%	18%	0.4%	no record
AA 1904 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	IAD 18:37	48%	18%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON