Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: AS 646 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–52%.

Safest bet today AS 646 DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 685 DFW 16:37 → PDX 18:41 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 646 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 17:45	PDX 19:49	33%	11%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
AS 392 Alaska	DFW 18:41	PDX 20:42	42%	11%	0.4%	no record
AA 2620 American Flight history →	DFW 22:54	PDX 00:55	45%	13%	0.6%	44%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 21:28	PDX 23:42	46%	11%	0.6%	53%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 15:03	PDX 17:13	48%	18%	0.6%	51%
AA 2283 American Flight history →	DFW 20:49	PDX 22:51	51%	14%	0.4%	58%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	PDX 18:41	52%	16%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON