Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 3781 at 17:26 is the safest bet, 39% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–63%.

Safest bet today AA 3781 DFW 17:26 → SAT 18:36 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 546 DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 52% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3781 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:26	SAT 18:36	39%	12%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:22	SAT 18:38	40%	11%	0.8%	62%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	55%	21%	0.9%	53%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:28	SAT 19:45	58%	23%	0.7%	59%worse than usual
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	58%	16%	0.6%	51%
AA 1599 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	SAT 23:58	58%	15%	0.6%	41%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	60%	24%	0.6%	59%worse than usual
AA 499 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	SAT 19:43	60%	23%	0.7%	61%worse than usual
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	63%	22%	0.6%	49%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON