Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:35 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 4133 at 16:51 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–56%.

Safest bet today AA 4133 DFW 16:51 → TUL 18:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2014 DFW 20:50 → TUL 22:11 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:51	TUL 18:03	31%	8%	1.0%	79%
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:36	TUL 19:53	42%	10%	0.7%	60%
AA 3830 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:36	TUL 19:48	43%	11%	0.8%	72%worse than usual
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 22:38	TUL 23:47	55%	15%	0.8%	62%worse than usual
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 20:50	TUL 22:11	56%	25%	0.8%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON