Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 5031 at 16:35, 56%.

Safest bet today WN 5031 HOU 16:35 → ABQ 18:06 · 56% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4703 HOU 22:55 → ABQ 00:10 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 60% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 5031 Southwest	HOU 16:35	ABQ 18:06	56%	18%	0.2%	no record
WN 4972 Southwest	HOU 16:30	ABQ 17:45	60%	18%	0.2%	no record
WN 1534 Southwest	HOU 22:35	ABQ 00:06	61%	12%	0.2%	no record
WN 4703 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:55	ABQ 00:10	64%	15%	0.2%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON