Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:16 pm at Houston); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2712 at 22:45, 45%.

Nonstops today


WN 2712 Southwest	HOU 22:45	MAF 00:21	45%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 4800 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	MAF 00:10	46%	13%	0.6%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 19:28 → DAL 20:06WN 52	2h 24m Dallas	DAL 22:30 → MAF 23:51WN 1396	4h 23m	93%	42%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:35 → MAF 23:59AA 5168 · flown by PSA	5h 10m	84%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 20:20 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:35 → MAF 23:59AA 5168 · flown by PSA	3h 39m	58%	29%
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:15 → DAL 21:25WN 58	1h 05m Dallas	DAL 22:30 → MAF 23:51WN 1396	3h 36m	53%	24%
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:32 → DAL 21:47WN 54	48m Dallas	DAL 22:35 → MAF 23:50WN 4677	3h 18m	24%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON