Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:29 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4859 at 21:10, 46%.

Nonstops today


WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:10	MIA 00:40	46%	11%	0.3%	27%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	86%	24%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:21 +1AA 9791	5h 32m	55%	23%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 22m	59%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON