tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Houston); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: Southwest via LAX, leaving 17:30, 53% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 17:30 → LAX 18:55WN 4857 3h 40m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → SJC 23:55WN 3222 8h 25m 100% 53%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:35 → LAS 17:45WN 2003 3h 50m Las Vegas LAS 21:35 → SJC 23:10WN 2350 8h 35m 100% 53%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 17:05 → DAL 18:15WN 44 3h 06m Dallas DAL 21:21 → SJC 23:06WN 1454 8h 01m 98% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 6h 09m 50% 18%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 17:30 → LAX 18:55WN 4857 46m Los Angeles LAX 19:41 → SJC 21:04WN 2510 5h 34m 18% 8%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 20:05 → SAN 21:15WN 2072 47m San Diego SAN 22:02 → SJC 23:35WN 3705 5h 30m 0% 0%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON