Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:01 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 244 at 17:55, 58%.

Nonstops today


WN 244 Southwest	HOU 17:55	SLC 20:09	58%	11%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 16:35 → LAS 17:45WN 2003	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 21:30 → SLC 23:55WN 4161	8h 20m	100%	51%
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:05 → PHX 20:45WN 2065	2h 07m Phoenix	PHX 22:52 → SLC 01:35 +1WN 3313	6h 30m	94%	47%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:05 → DAL 18:15WN 44	2h 30m Dallas	DAL 20:45 → SLC 22:37WN 298	6h 32m	92%	36%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	6h 47m	85%	31%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 09m	76%	30%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:05 → DAL 20:19WN 52	1h 36m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → SLC 23:40WN 2540	5h 35m	76%	27%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	5h 20m	35%	14%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	5h 10m	31%	13%
Southwest Details →	HOU 20:05 → PHX 20:45WN 2065	50m Phoenix	PHX 21:35 → SLC 00:15 +1WN 4792	5h 10m	25%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON