Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Dulles); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 19:31, is the safest bet: 18% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2337 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	AUS 20:35	48%	19%	0.7%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217	1h 50m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	6h 13m	92%	34%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335	7h 11m	90%	22%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312	6h 12m	67%	36%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 27m Newark	EWR 20:37 → AUS 23:41UA 1409	6h 59m	65%	20%
American Details →	IAD 19:36 → DFW 21:54AA 1863	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	5h 15m	56%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON