tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:55 am at Dulles); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 13:08, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 26% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → IAD 13:08 → CLT 14:42AA 5220 · flown by PSA 1h 58m Charlotte CLT 16:40 → MIA 18:57AA 2231 5h 49m 94% 60%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596 5h 36m 91% 60%
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 48m 91% 57%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 1h 50m Newark EWR 15:51 → MIA 19:07UA 1498 6h 32m 89% 49%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 1h 39m Houston IAH 16:50 → MIA 20:33UA 2740 7h 43m 90% 48%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:09 → MIA 19:25DL 1631 6h 46m 93% 48%
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:01 → MIA 00:02 +1AA 2090 8h 47m 87% 48%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 14m 86% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393 1h 03m Chicago ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180 6h 48m 72% 52%
AmericanDetails → IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450 52m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068 4h 26m 46% 29%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 58m Newark EWR 20:08 → MIA 23:26UA 1128 5h 44m 26% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON