Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


UA 4394 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:37	ROC 23:58	18%	12%	2.9%	82%
UA 4871 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:30	ROC 19:05	25%	6%	6.1%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	2h 49m Newark	EWR 21:59 → ROC 23:18UA 3643 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	84%	55%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → ROC 22:54DL 1418	5h 28m	90%	52%
Delta Details →	IAD 19:14 → JFK 21:00DL 5076 · flown by Endeavor	1h 59m New York	JFK 22:59 → ROC 00:53 +1DL 5297 · flown by Endeavor	5h 39m	81%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	5h 41m	73%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON