Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 18:05, is the safest bet: 25% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1148 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	SMF 22:28	45%	10%	0.2%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 43m	85%	62%
United Details →	IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341	2h 44m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	7h 54m	95%	60%
American Details →	IAH 17:39 → PHX 18:28AA 640	2h 15m Phoenix	PHX 20:43 → SMF 23:01AA 2146	7h 22m	78%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341	46m San Francisco	SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:59UA 1862	5h 54m	39%	25%
American Details →	IAH 19:49 → DFW 21:15AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	6h 10m	39%	15%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 02m	22%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON