Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Jacksonville); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 46–56% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1463 American Flight history →	JAX 20:06	DCA 22:20	46%	29%	1.5%	69%worse than usual
AA 1982 American Flight history →	JAX 19:09	DCA 21:06	56%	22%	1.4%	61%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 19:37 → MIA 20:57AA 3605 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Miami	MIA 22:10 → DCA 00:49 +1AA 708	5h 12m	73%	49%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON