Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 33–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2025 LAS 23:35 → MIA 07:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest F9 4552 LAS 22:29 → MIA 06:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2025 American Flight history →	LAS 23:35	MIA 07:40	33%	10%	0.5%	72%
AA 1080 American Flight history →	LAS 22:25	MIA 06:30	35%	13%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
AA 1539 American	LAS 22:25	MIA 06:18	36%	13%	0.4%	no record
F9 4552 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:29	MIA 06:30	39%	15%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON